As Q4 begins, investors are asking the big question: where does crypto go from here? A new a clear snapshot of how Bitcoin and Ethereum performed in Q3 and what their data tells us about the road ahead.
Bitcoin’s on-chain data from Q3 shows a market that’s more mature than ever. Coins untouched for over a year dropped just 2%, while short-term active coins rose 12%. That means long-term holders stayed firm even as prices surged and headlines screamed new highs. Their patience has made each dip harder to sustain without a real catalyst.
Bitcoin’s price still trades comfortably above the market’s average cost basis, but not in overheated territory. In plain terms, there’s room for continuation, though not at bubble levels. Futures open interest climbed to about $53 billion, and options hit $44 billion, both seeing strong quarterly growth. Yet trading volume fell 15%, showing less noise and more strategic positioning.
Interestingly, this cycle has started to differ from past bull runs. Bitcoin tracked the 2015 to 2018 pattern almost exactly for nearly two years before breaking away. That divergence doesn’t spell danger—it means a new market era where liquidity, not hype, drives momentum.
Ethereum had its own breakthrough moment. For the first time, ETH ETFs saw larger inflows than Bitcoin ETFs in Q3, pulling in $9.4 billion. That surge reveals growing retail and institutional appetite for the network.
At the same time, long-term ETH holders took some profit. Liquid supply rose 18%, and illiquid holdings dropped 8%. Futures and options activity exploded, with futures open interest up 115% and options up 132%.
On-chain, Ethereum continued to shine. Layer 2 transactions hit record highs while user fees dropped to a two-year low, attracting more users and developers. Staking also grew steadily, tightening supply and encouraging more holding behavior.
Three major trends are shaping crypto this quarter.
Coinbase’s Q4 outlook strikes a balanced tone: steady, data-driven optimism. Bitcoin shows strength in structure; Ethereum shows strength in adoption.
The next few months could define how both assets evolve in this new, more mature phase of crypto markets.
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