Gold emerged as the best major asset in 2025 while Bitcoin posted its weakest annual performance, marking a rare inversion in cross-asset returns and intensifying scrutiny around whether the digital asset has entered a formal bear phase.
According to market data cited by Charlie Bilello, gold finished 2025 with a gain of 64%, ranking as the top-performing major asset for the year. In contrast, Bitcoin closed the year down 6%, making it the weakest performer among major asset classes. Bilello noted that this marked the first calendar year on record in which gold outperformed Bitcoin, with Bitcoin ranking last, mirroring the inverse of conditions seen in 2013.
2025 price action met the commonly used definition of a bear market. After reaching an all-time high of above $126,000 in October, Bitcoin declined by more than 20%, falling below $100,000. This combination of price decline, reduced momentum, and weaker sentiment placed the asset within bear-market territory by traditional market standards.
Historical context by Ξliézer Ndinga shows that Bitcoin has previously experienced two different categories of recessions. Cyclical bear markets averaged drawdowns of approximately 84% and lasted around two and a half years.
In contrast, shorter-term bear markets averaged declines of nearly 36%, typically lasting about two months, with recoveries spanning roughly three months. Ndinga also noted that Bitcoin recorded the weakest performance among major asset classes in both 2018 and 2022.
Data from CoinGlass that Bitcoin returned -23.07% in Q4 2025, which is below its historical Q4 average of +77.07% and median of +47.73%. This ranked as the second-worst fourth quarter on record, behind only Q4 2018. Ethereum also posted a Q4 decline of -28.28%, ranking as its fourth-worst year-end performance.
CryptoRank.io further showed that 2025 closed with a 6.28% annual loss for Bitcoin, breaking its long-observed four-year growth and decline cycle. Heatmap analysis of quarterly returns from 2013 through early 2026 reveals that while crypto markets have historically concentrated gains in specific quarters, the gains earlier in 2025 were outweighed by losses in the final quarter.
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