As of now, Ethereum's price is about $2100, which falls below the current seller's selling price and the 200-day moving average line. Currently we are under a macro environment defined by $100 oil prices; sideways movements from the previous short-term high; and the recent changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy (hawkishness) that has resulted in all speculative risk-type assets dropping since February 28. Overall the outlook of potential opportunities for purchasing ETH based on the current data-based structures does not look promising. However, for the first time since early February 2023, there has been an observable chain shift in ETH price (and there is historical precedent that when these shifts occurred, ETH pricing was meaningfully higher approximately 3–6 months later). The 21st of March saw the<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/ethereum-25-rally-richest-eth-whale-return-profitable" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>wallet holders of +100k ETH<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/ethereum-25-rally-richest-eth-whale-return-profitable" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>turn from negative into positive unrealized profit on the blockchain. The Uniwhale Class/Group of Wallet Holders (per CryptoQuant) is no longer experiencing negative total realised gain via Bitcoin. After experiencing 7 consecutive weeks of losing unrealised profits, the largest 100k ETH wallet holders are currently back to enjoying positive unrealised gains. Whenever similar types of transitions like this occur in previous cycles, the price of ETH will usually follow a prolonged upward trend vs temporary retracement. CW, an analyst from crypto-oriented technical analysis firm CW was very quick to highlight these historical trends.<h2>What the Historical Record Actually Says</h2>The data is specific enough to take seriously and ambiguous enough to treat carefully. Both things are true. Historically, when ETH has experienced a whale profit ratio change from negative to positive, there has been a<a href="https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/ethereum/ethereum-eyes-25-rally-as-top-eth-whales-return-to-profitable-state/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>roughly 25% increase<a href="https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/ethereum/ethereum-eyes-25-rally-as-top-eth-whales-return-to-profitable-state/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>in its value within three months. The historical average is about 50% after six months and about 300% after one year across the various market cycles tracked by CryptoQuant's cohort analysis. However, just because these values exist in data does not mean they will happen again. If you take the current ETH price and look at each of those averages, you get three-month price targets near $2,625 by the end of June 2026; six-month price target near $3,150 by mid-December 2026; one-year price target above $8,000 until March 2027 if the historical 300% increases are accurate (this last number is a scenario analysis, not a prediction). The three and six-month price targets are more reliable compared to independent technical price targets. One notable exception to this trend was ETH's positive whale ratio flip in early 2018, at which time it dropped 17.50% in value the following month, later reaching an overall decrease of almost 70% over the course of the subsequent year. An isolated indicator should not determine a trading strategy; however, the market conditions in early 2018 lacked any institutional ETF inflows or collateral demand for DeFi or on-chain revenues unlike those expected from January to July, 2026. Because of the material changes across the 2018 and 2026 time frames, those comparisons cannot fully eliminate either scenario analysis to fulfill an accurate prediction.<h2>The MVRV Signal Is Saying the Same Thing</h2>In evaluating how one might judge a potential bottom in the price of Ethereum (ETH) using the whale profit ratio, we see evidence of potential bottoms in other metrics — specifically in relation to the<a href="https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/ethereum/eth-whales-return-to-profit-as-market-structure-points-to-early-stage-uptrend/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>MVRV Deviation Bands as defined by Glassnode. The MVRV Deviation Bands look at current price levels compared to realized value for all holders of Ether, which is calculated based on when each individual coin has moved last. The last time we saw ETH trading in the lowest band of the deviation structure was in Q2 of 2022 and then again in Q2 of 2025; these were both times where price subsequently recovered above realized value and began trading above into higher valuation territory. ETH's total realized price based on all coins currently in circulation, and weighed according to how long they have been locked up since their last movement, currently sits at approximately $2,353; at the same time, BTC is currently trading below realized price at approximately $2,100. The distance between the current market price of ETH and its realized value acts as an initial layer of technical resistance for ETH prices. A clean break over the realized value level of $2,353 would allow prices to then start targeting the negative 0.5 standard deviation (sigma) band of approximately $2,640 (this level corresponds almost perfectly with the target provided by the ascending triangle pictured in the current chart structure). For ETH to break above key indicators of potential upward movement, we also will need to watch for the failure to reclaim either of the key levels discussed for re-testing the lowest deviation band, which is currently at<a href="https://ambcrypto.com/ethereum-whales-are-profitable-again-heres-why-its-bullish-and-dangerous/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>$1,651 for an approximate 21% decline from the current market price of ETH. Additionally, the MVRV framework has provided us with both bullish target and invalidation levels, which can be helpful when planning for potential future price movement in ETH.<h2>The Macro Wall ETH Has to Climb</h2>On the day of this writing, 18 March 2026, both technical signals for Ethereum (ETH) and on-chain metrics were being influenced by macro conditions that have governed virtually every asset since 28 February 2026. Gas prices exceeding $100 per barrel, core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) exceeding target levels, the Federal Reserve continuing with one rate cut priced in as of 2027, and an unemployment report indicating a loss of 92,000 jobs against a projection of 55,000 jobs created do not pertain specifically to ETH; however, they have an impact on ETH's likelihood of converting the current whale signal into actual price increases. There were<a href="https://en.coin-turk.com/large-ether-holders-signal-recovery-as-on-chain-profitability-returns/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>$12.6 million in new investments into Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on 18 March 2026, which is also noteworthy in that this was the first time ETH ETF inflows were greater than outflows for many days. Much of this activity occurred with Fidelity's Ethereum Fund (FETH). While this does not indicate a reversal of trend, it still provides an indication that large-cap institutional investors still see value in ETH at current prices. There was also activity last week that may support a bullish outlook for ETH from large-cap early investors (or "whales") that have been invested in ETH since accumulating their funds from 2015–2017. One such wallet<a href="https://www.tronweekly.com/ethereum-holds-2-1k-as-eth-btc-tests-key-level/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>acquired $19.5 million of ETH last week, which demonstrates that this investor believes that the downside is limited from the current price level. Three signals coming together (1) whale profit flip, (2) rebound in market value to realized value (MVRV) band, and (3) accumulation by early whales does not guarantee a 25% price increase in ETH; however, they will change the probability distributions in favor of a significant price fluctuation.

ETH whale wallets turned profitable again, a signal often tied to gains. Despite macro pressure, MVRV and accumulation suggest recovery, but price must break resistance to confirm momentum strength.

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