Why Americans May Have Less Crypto Cash in 2026 — and Why BOJ Policy Matters for Bitcoin

Americans may have less money to invest in cryptocurrencies in 2026 as income growth slows and job gains weaken. Recent U.S. labor market data suggest household finances could come under pressure heading into next year.

According to the latest figures, nonfarm payrolls fell by about 105,000 jobs in October, then rebounded by roughly 64,000 jobs in November. The uneven pattern has raised concerns about the sustainability of income growth.

Kevin Gordon, a senior investment strategist, the data in a post on X, noting that the combination of weak job growth and slowing wages points to reduced disposable income.

Gordon said this trend could limit the amount of excess cash households typically allocate to higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Interestingly, retail investors play a central role in crypto markets, particularly outside Bitcoin. Analysts note that altcoins rely more heavily on discretionary retail capital.

When household budgets tighten, these assets often face reduced demand. Bitcoin, by contrast, benefits from broader participation, including institutional investors and exchange-traded funds.

While a cooling labor market could give the Federal Reserve room to ease policy, analysts believe that liquidity alone may not fully offset weaker household income.

Easier financial conditions can lift asset prices, but rallies driven primarily by liquidity tend to be sensitive to broader economic shifts. As a result, crypto markets may become increasingly dependent on global monetary policy decisions rather than retail demand.

Attention has also turned to the Bank of Japan, which is signaling a move away from decades of ultra-low interest rates. Markets are pricing in rate increases of around 25 basis points, which would bring Japan’s policy rate closer to 0.75%.

Crypto commentator Mister Crypto investors are increasingly focused on the Bank of Japan because of its influence on global liquidity.

Another market observer, known as NoLimit, that a policy shift in Japan could have immediate consequences for Bitcoin prices. He predicted that Bitcoin could crash in the next five days.

Lark Davis, a crypto analyst and educator, to historical data showing that Bitcoin fell following previous Bank of Japan rate hikes.

According to Davis, Bitcoin dropped about 27% after a hike in March 2024, roughly 30% after a July 2024 move, and around 31% following a January 2025 increase. He also noted that Bitcoin had already declined by about 7% ahead of the latest policy expectations as traders adjusted positions.

and reduce the appeal of the yen carry trade