Why Bitcoin’s Old Cycle Timing Failed in 2025 and What Replaced It

A self-described nihilistic cryptocurrency speculator believes that Bitcoin is departing from the traditional 4-year cycle into a trend that is yet to be determined.

In his latest post on X, the analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s past behavior, explaining the concept behind the 4-year cycle, which is currently undergoing disruption.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s 4-year behavioral pattern originated from the regular Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years. In the early stages, analysts focused on the economic principle of supply and demand to explain why the cryptocurrency’s price surged around the halving events.

However, the acclaimed nihilistic speculator believes a certain population of the Bitcoin community capitalized on that principle to build a “memetic consensus” that drove the 4-year cycle idea.

Explaining his view, the analyst noted that a group of traders had formed an “implicit agreement,” perhaps unconsciously, and coordinated buying and selling Bitcoin at set times, representing an “egregore-as-cartel.

This herd behavior forced outsiders to participate in the system, leading to a dominant culture among traders who aligned with the idea of a 4-year routine for Bitcoin.

With the cycle in place, some participants seeking to maximize the opportunity shifted their behavior by taking positions ahead of the cycle, aiming to front-run the system for maximum profit. However, such moves failed in 2025 after the disparity in behavior between traders who sold aggressively and those who did not follow the trend.

The analyst considers this divergent approach a confirmation of the breakdown in the 4-year Bitcoin cycle. He thinks the previous coordination is lacking, and another pattern may be unfolding for the pioneer cryptocurrency.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle pattern was more effective before the massive influx of institutional investors via ETFs and other related products. Perhaps the influence of this category of investors has neutralized the “memetic consensus” highlighted by the analyst, and could set the tone for a new pattern that retail traders will have to align with.