Bitcoin’s value compared to gold has dropped to a multi-year low, a move that in the past has marked major market bottoms. This is happening amid tighter monetary policy and cautious investors, which are pressuring global markets.
The BTC/gold ratio, which shows how much Bitcoin is worth relative to gold, has been declining since mid-2025. As of December 15, it was around 20 XAU, down from about 35–40 XAU during the 2021 bull market.
That’s a drop of roughly 40–45%. While significant, the ratio remains above past bear-market lows of around 2 in 2015, 5 in 2018, and 10–12 in 2022.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe that the relative strength index, RSI, of Bitcoin against gold has dropped below 30.
He said the current signal does not guarantee a reversal. However, he explained that such extremes usually indicate that one asset is priced higher than the other.
In this case, the data suggest that gold may be overvalued relative to Bitcoin. With this, he suggested that there could be a capital rotation into Bitcoin soon.
He also highlighted a large gap between the BTC/GOLD ratio and its 20-week moving average, a condition that has often preceded mean reversion in past cycles.
Another chart shows Bitcoin versus gold testing a long-term trendline that has held since 2019. At the same time, the Z-score, which measures how far prices are from their long-term average, has dropped to about -1.7.
Similar levels were observed in 2019, 2020, and 2022, periods when Bitcoin strengthened against gold.
Analyst Mister Crypto the BTC/gold pair looks oversold and could bounce based on past patterns.
Many analysts agree that the current weakness looks like a normal cycle pullback, not a long-term breakdown. Overall, the setup looks similar to past late-cycle corrections, when Bitcoin lagged gold for a time before outperforming again.
Notably, Bitcoin’s oversold signals are appearing during a busy period for global markets. Crypto prices have been reacting to U.S. inflation data, jobs reports, and central bank decisions.
Van de Poppe the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates. In the past, such moves have put short-term pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin while boosting gold.
In dollar terms, Bitcoin is currently trading around $86,172, down 3.7% in the past day and about 10% over the past month. The latest drop followed a rejection near $90,000.
Van de Poppe said a move back above $88,000 would be a positive sign. If Bitcoin fails to recover that level, prices could fall toward support near $83,800 and $80,500.
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