Ethereum continues to struggle below key resistance on the 4-hour chart as price compresses inside a narrowing range. Sellers still guide short-term structure, yet weakening trend strength suggests consolidation may dominate before the next decisive move.
ETH trades below the Supertrend barrier near $2,073, which limits immediate upside attempts. The structure reflects lower highs and lower lows after rejection near the 0.786 Fibonacci region around $3,050. Consequently, short-term momentum remains fragile.
Immediate support rests between $1,975 and $1,960. A breakdown below this zone would likely increase pressure toward $1,746, which marks the major structural base. Hence, bulls must defend $1,960 to avoid deeper retracement risk.
On the upside, $2,073 serves as the first pivot level. A sustained move above that barrier could open a recovery toward $2,209, aligned with the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Additionally, $2,380 and $2,576 represent stronger supply zones if buyers regain control.
DMI indicators show sellers retain a slight advantage, with negative directional pressure exceeding positive momentum. However, ADX remains near 14, which signals weak overall trend strength. Therefore, Ethereum may continue moving sideways until volatility expands.
Ethereum’s open interest reveals a clear shift from aggressive speculation toward reduced leverage. During the prior rally, open interest surged above $50 billion as traders increased exposure. However, declining price momentum triggered position unwinding and liquidations.
Current open interest stands near $23.5 billion. That drop reflects a cooling derivatives environment and reduced risk appetite. Significantly, lower leverage often precedes sharper directional moves once new conviction emerges.
Spot flow data also shows heavy distribution between mid-year and early winter. Outflows frequently exceeded $300 million and occasionally approached $800 million. However, a recent inflow spike above $600 million suggests renewed accumulation interest. Net flows now hover near neutral, indicating a potential transition phase.
Additionally, Nasdaq-listed BitMine increased its Ethereum exposure with a 20,000 ETH purchase valued near $39.8 million. The firm now holds 45,759 ETH after rapid accumulation over one week. Moreover, management aims to control 5% of Ethereum’s total supply over time.
Key levels remain clearly defined as Ethereum trades inside a tightening 4H structure heading into the next volatility window.
Upside levels:
Downside levels:
Resistance ceiling:
The technical structure shows Ethereum compressing within a descending range of lower highs and steady support tests. Meanwhile, DMI signals sellers still lead, yet ADX near 14 reflects weak trend strength. Consequently, consolidation may continue before expansion.
Ethereum’s next move depends on whether buyers can defend $1,960 long enough to challenge the $2,073–$2,209 cluster. Stabilizing open interest and neutralizing spot outflows suggest leverage has reset. Additionally, renewed accumulation activity, including institutional buying, supports longer-term conviction.
If inflows strengthen and price closes above $2,073, Ethereum could retest $2,209 and $2,380. However, failure to hold $1,960 raises the probability of a retest of $1,746.
For now, ETH remains in a decisive compression zone. Momentum confirmation and capital flows will determine the next directional leg.
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