Bitcoin has fallen 3.2% to a $75,702 close after losing the $77,100 range floor, while futures data has shown traders rebuilding long positions despite weak U.S. spot demand.
Bitfinex Alpha said in a Sep. 16 market update that Bitcoin traders have bought the decline through perpetual futures, even as spot-market data points to limited demand below the former range floor.
Bitcoin had traded between $77,100 and $81,300 for 24 days from Aug. 21 before breaking lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. Tuesday’s $75,702 close left BTC 3.2% lower and below the $76,043 low set after the Aug. consumer price index report.
The close was Bitcoin’s third below $77,100 in six sessions, activating a downside path that Bitfinex had identified in an earlier report. Analysts said BTC could now revisit $73,500, the average cost basis of investors who acquired their holdings three to six months ago.
A recovery above $77,100 would weaken that scenario only if spot trading volume increases, according to the report.
Derivatives traders initially reduced exposure during the decline but quickly returned to the market. Global Bitcoin futures open interest fell by $1.7 billion during a 3.5% peak-to-trough move on Sep. 15, then recovered to $52.15 billion by the following morning.
Open interest had stood at $52.1 billion before the breakdown, leaving total futures exposure slightly above its earlier level despite the price decline.
At the same time, funding rates stayed positive without reaching levels that Bitfinex considered overheated. Traders continued adding long exposure while Bitcoin formed lower highs and lower lows.
“Longs are being re-added as funding remains positive, albeit not overheated, even as price continues to decline with lower highs and lower lows,” Bitfinex Alpha told crypto.news.
The analysts said the recovery in open interest differs from a capitulation event, when funding usually turns negative and traders close leveraged positions. Such events commonly produce a steep fall in open interest rather than a rapid rebuild.
Aggregated cumulative volume delta, which measures market orders from buyers and sellers, also showed an increase in buy-side taker activity after Bitcoin lost $77,100. Positive price moves were accompanied by positive funding and rising open interest, which the report described as dip-buying in perpetual markets.
Liquidations still removed some leverage from the market. About $571 million in long positions across crypto assets were liquidated on Sep. 15, compared with approximately $100 million in shorts. Bitcoin and Ethereum each accounted for roughly $190 million of the long-liquidation total.
The event was the largest long liquidation since Aug. 22. During an earlier test of $77,100 on Sep. 10, total liquidations reached $562 million, with long positions accounting for 86%.
Futures traders have added exposure, but Bitfinex found less buying pressure in the spot market. Coinbase’s spot discount widened from 0.03% on Monday to 0.08% at the Sep. 16 daily open, indicating weaker demand on the U.S. exchange than on other trading venues.
The discount was its deepest since Aug. 15, when Bitcoin traded below $65,000 before its subsequent advance. Passive bids have absorbed part of the recent ETF selling, according to Bitfinex, but buyers have not shown enough urgency to return BTC above $77,000.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450.4 million in net outflows on Tuesday. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $214.8 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $161.7 million in redemptions. Together, the two funds accounted for 84% of the daily total.
The outflow ranked as the 33rd largest across the 687 trading sessions since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Bitfinex also ranked it as the 14th-largest daily withdrawal of 2026.
ETF demand had been stronger earlier in September. During the week ending Sep. 4, the funds attracted $986.7 million in net inflows, led by approximately $691.5 million across BlackRock’s Bitcoin products.
Tuesday’s selling therefore reversed part of the institutional support that had helped BTC remain inside its August-to-September range. Bitfinex said ETF flows should now provide a clearer reading of institutional positioning than the options market.
Short-term holders supplied another source of selling as Bitcoin moved below its range. Exchange inflows from coins held for less than 155 days rose from about 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC on Tuesday.
Of the total, 23,200 BTC reached exchanges at a loss, the highest amount in a month. Loss-making deposits from the same group reached 8,260 BTC across major offshore spot exchanges, the largest reading since Aug. 11, when Bitcoin traded near $64,000.
Deposits into U.S. institutional products, including ETFs and investment wrappers, remained close to their typical level of 7,300 BTC. Bitfinex attributed the additional exchange inflows to recent buyers holding retail-sized positions rather than institutional investors.
The affected group acquired 1.23 million BTC between $77,100 and $81,300 during the previous four weeks. With Bitcoin trading below that area, the cohort now holds the coins at an unrealized loss.
The decline also accelerated as resting orders disappeared. Bitcoin fell about $1,100 between 18:30 and 18:45 UTC on Tuesday despite almost no net taker flow on Bitfinex, suggesting buyers withdrew limit orders instead of sellers aggressively striking bids.
The move occurred alongside the failed Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act. As previously reported by crypto.news, the motion received 50 votes in favor and 49 against, leaving it 10 votes short of the 60 required to open debate.
Bitfinex placed the first support area between $74,985 and $75,412, combining Tuesday’s low, Strategy’s average Bitcoin purchase price, and a liquidation cluster previously located between $75,000 and $76,000.
Strategy holds 845,050 BTC at an average cost of $75,412, according to the report. Tuesday’s low fell below the company’s cost basis before Bitcoin closed about 0.4% above it.
For the support zone to hold, Bitfinex said ETF flows would need to stabilize while open interest in Sep. 18 options at the $75,000 strike remains contained. A sustained break below the area would expose the $73,500 cost basis of three-to-six-month holders.
Below $73,500, the report identified $71,300 as the short-term holder realized price. The level also sits near a $70,000-to-$71,500 volume node containing a cost-basis concentration of close to 350,000 BTC.
A return to the $62,500-to-$71,000 first-quarter range would carry more serious implications under Bitfinex’s model. The analysts said a close inside that band would indicate a return to a bear-market regime rather than a temporary dip within the post-August structure.
Options traders have also paid more for downside protection beyond the Fed meeting. Open interest for the Sep. 18 expiry rose 22% during the week, with calls increasing 30% and puts rising 12%. Longer-dated 25-delta risk reversals moved toward puts across the September, October and December expiries.
Ahead of the decision, earlier Bitfinex analysis had identified large liquidation zones near $76,000 and $82,000. The lower cluster has since been tested, with more than $500 million in liquidations clearing positions around $75,000 to $76,000.
Bitcoin’s 10-day correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.76 from 0.20 on Sep. 11, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 increased to 0.66 from 0.15. Over the same period, its correlation with gold fell from 0.79 to 0.51, according to Bitfinex.
From Sep. 8 to Sep. 15, Bitcoin fell 3.7% as the 10-year Treasury yield increased from 4.8% to 5%. The 10-year inflation-adjusted yield closed at 2.62%, raising the available return on U.S. government debt while Bitcoin continued trading as a non-yielding asset.
