Bitcoin Records Worst Q1 in 8 Years as Bullish Q2 Pattern Emerges

Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded its worst Q1 performance in 8 years, closing Q1 2026 down 23.21%. Q2 historically drives bullish rebounds after weak quarters. Regulatory progress, rising institutional adoption, and strong liquidity support now position Bitcoin for a potentially powerful rebound.

According to CoinGlass , Bitcoin concluded the first quarter of 2026 with a price drop of around $20,500 per BTC, marking the weakest Q1 showing since 2018 and ranking among the third-worst quarterly starts since reliable records began in 2013.

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Bitcoin opened 2026 trading between $87,500–$88,700 and reached intra-quarter highs of $97,000 before its price fell to trade between $66,700–$68,400 by March 31, 2026. This performance is below Bitcoin’s historical Q1 average return of about +45.9% and its median Q1 return of -2.26%.

This decline followed Bitcoin’s all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, leaving the asset down nearly 47% from that peak by the end of Q1 2026.

Bitcoin’s Q1 price drop was driven in large part by heavy net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs recorded roughly $4.5 billion in withdrawals during the first eight weeks of 2026, marking one of the longest sustained outflow streaks since their launch in January 2024.

The bulk of the outflows occurred over five weeks starting in late January, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC leading the redemptions. Early January saw some inflows totaling about $1.8 billion in the first and third weeks, but these were quickly reversed by heavy selling pressure.

Meanwhile, broader market risks amplified ’s Q1 decline. Geopolitical tensions such as the U.S.-Iran conflicts have driven oil prices higher, and sticky inflation has kept the Federal Reserve cautious. Bitcoin has moved closely in line with traditional markets during this period.

Going forward, BTC price could show resilience in Q2 following negative Q1 performance, as BTC has posted positive returns in 8 of the 13 years since 2013 after a negative Q1. The average Q2 return is approximately +28%, though the median is closer to +7% after adjusting for outliers like 2017 and 2019.

As of March 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $1.32 billion in net inflows, marking the first gain of 2026 and the strongest since October 2025, helping to offset earlier heavy outflows.

While macro uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy, continue to influence risk assets, the combination of seasonal Q2 patterns and recent ETF inflow momentum forms the immediate backdrop as the new quarter begins.